July 7, 2009

The Dollar is Still King

The most stable replacement for the dollar as a reserve currency is gold or the gold standard. But the gold standard has severe limitations that hamper the independence of monetary policy. The gold standard restricts the amount of currency that can be in circulation by linking it to the gold held by the central bank. This linkage was broken first by Britain in 1914 in order to fund its operations during World War I. The UK did return to the gold standard in 1925. However, with the US becoming the dominant power towards the Second World War, the dollar became the predominant currency, with other major currencies being pegged to the dollar. The dollar itself was pegged at $35 to an ounce of gold. In 1971, in order to fund the Vietnam War, Nixon removed the peg with gold, which enabled the US to induce a massive expansion of dollars in circulation for funding the war. Thus, reverting to a gold standard seems improbable as it curtails the independence of monetary policy.

A proposed alternative is the IMF's SDRs. Though China and Russia have backed the SDR proposal vehemently, the SDR seems to be an unsuitable candidate as it is not an independent currency. Moreover, the IMF is not a bank, which can borrow and lend in private markets and is only for governments. Thus it cannot pass for a currency and cannot be traded. These factors make it difficult for the SDR, in its current form, to be instituted as a substitute to the US dollar as a reserve currency.
The dollar has been able to serve as a reserve currency due to the strength of the US economy and the nation's political dominance in the world. Thus, the future of the dollar as a reserve currency is largely dependant upon how the economy shapes up and how the balance of economic and political power take shape. With China determined to play a more dominant economic and political role and its economy supporting such a move, in the long run the dollar may eventually lose some of its sheen to be substituted to some extent by other currencies like the Euro amongst others. However, there seems to be no ready replacement available at present. While this denotes a long term trend, in the short run, the dollar is likely to continue with its status of predominance. Profiteering lies in following short term money flows between asset classes of equities and currencies and assessing trends by tracking the upward and downward movements in the dollar.

July 3, 2009

How to Use the Tunnel of 5's ?

The Tunnel of 5's is a combination of two moving averages:5-period smoothed moving average applied to the highs5-period smoothed moving average applied to the lows(If your charting package doesn't have smoothed MAs, then use exponential)The idea is that you want to be trading outside of this tunnel. The tunnel can also show you a "squeeze" prior to a break-out forming, which is part of the reason I do no need Bollinger Bands up on my chart (in fact, John Bollinger himself once told me that the best use of his bands is in option spread pricing, not in fx trading).Many people "over trade" in that as soon as they get out of a long, they look to go short, and vice-versa. The Tunnel of 5's forces you to wait, to see if the reversal is really in fact a reversal. Sort of acts as a buffer zone. And, by the time price works it's way across and comes out the other side of this tunnel, chances are if you compare with your longer timeframe (multiple timeframes, don't forget), that will give you permission to change directions as well. The two work together quite nicely. You will find many moves accelerating once price moves to the outside of the Tunnel of 5's - this is because most bank traders are watching these levels, and consider a move "confirmed" (and jump on board themselves) once they see this.The other function of the Tunnel of 5's is to distinguish between the end of a move and normal market "breathing". So if you're already in a trade, and price starts moving against you, the Tunnel of 5's can either give you the confidence to stay in longer (as long as candle bodies continue closing back outside of it), or tells you to perhaps consider abandoning your position early, ahead of target (if the Tunnel of 5's is breached with a candle body close).

July 1, 2009

Understanding the Trends of Forex Mark

Forex is actually the foreign exchange and deals in the goods, services and currency trading. Forex trading has gained prominence with the passage of time and more and more people have started chasing the trend. This concept of forex is purely based upon investment whether they are small, or big one.Forex is also considered the economic indicator of economy and help to ascertain the financial picture of the nation. Also, forex market is the biggest financial and economical market of the world. Its money capacity is considered even larger than the equity and treasury markets.Currency trading is the chief work undertaken in this market and thus, great risk factors are involved with them. It is also said that it reflects the true financial and economic condition of the country in a defined way. Moreover, currency trading also highlights the factors connected with the assets that country store.It is generally said that forex is a very volatile market and prices fluctuate very quickly in fraction of seconds. So, while trading meticulous concentration should be paid so that you do not miss out any prominent moment where price has gone steeply upwards. This is considered as the most important forex trading strategy which can bring you huge sums of profits.As per the different forex trading signals, emphasis must be paid upon the mediums through which you can get instant information. Thus, internet and mobile phones can serve the purpose in the most appropriate way. These different forex trading signals can get you access to the forex alerts all 24/7. This makes them highly convenient and hassle free service mediums.Forex strategy system works on the economic driving force of demand and supply concept. Once the demand f any product increases steeply, it directly influences the supply side. On the overall picture of the forex trading system, it highlights the profitability of the forex market.Forex alerts are also needed for the awareness about the changes that take place in the financial market of forex forex signals so that economic feasibility of that country can be determined accordingly. This in turn helps the economists for analyzing the different trends that influence the market. They after bring the new theories of economics that can help in understanding the forex strategy system in a better way.Currency trading also help in exchanging the most used currency in which most of the trades of the country can be undertaken. In case, company wants to trade with any other country, at that time it requires its currency so that it can further undertake the business. Also, currency trading forms a vital part of investment that can help to earn profits.Forex signals, forex strategy system, forex trading signal, forex alerts, forex signal and current trading are all important components often market of forex and influence the financial position of a country in a big way. So, Forex signals, forex strategy system, forex trading signal, forex alerts, forex signal and current trading should be studied in details so that you can trade in the financial markets in the most appropriate way.